Why has China never been willing to go to war?

Just one thing: there’s no need.

The most likely place for a conflict to break out nearby is Taiwan. But the political choices on the island are very strange.

The DPP, which has written independence into its party platform, talks tougher than anyone. You’d think it would stop at nothing to pursue Taiwanese independence.

But while its rhetoric is loud, its actions never cross the red line. At most, it changes a name, updates the sign on a representative office, tweaks the textbooks, or makes a fuss about mainland Chinese influences on the island, such as simplified Chinese characters.

They would never do something suicidal like holding a referendum on independence or amending the constitution.

For example, there was a DPP politician named Tsai Yi-yu who wanted to show how bold and pro-independence he was, so he proposed a constitutional amendment.

The whole point of it was independence. He thought the Kuomintang would surely block the proposal, giving him a chance to fight back and argue his case. Then, when the bill failed because of the Kuomintang’s underhanded tactics, he could accuse them of colluding with the Communist Party, win support, and come out looking great.

But to his surprise, the Kuomintang unanimously approved it… Yes, he’d been hoping for a fight and an argument, but the other side agreed to everything.

The DPP hadn’t expected this at all. “I just wanted to argue, to put on a show. I didn’t want a war!”

If this were actually put into effect, the PLA’s missiles would arrive the next day.

In the end,

the draft was withdrawn.

See? In the Taiwan Strait—the most dangerous place and the likeliest flashpoint—the other side is a bunch of spineless actors.

There’s really no need for a war.